MARKET SNAP: At 6:15 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures up 0.08%. 10-Year Treasury yield lower at 2.73%. Nymex up 0.04% at $101.63. Gold down 0.26% at $1348.3/oz. In Europe, FTSE 100 down 0.05%, DAX down 0.43% and CAC 40 down 0.1%. In Asia, Nikkei 225 up 0.92% and Hang Seng down 0.19%.
WATCH FOR: February Nonfarm Payrolls: (8:30 a.m. Eastern Time): seen 152K; previously 113K. February Unemployment Rate (8:30): seen 6.5%; previously 6.6%. February Average Hourly Wages (8:30): seen +0.2%; previously +0.2%. January U.S. Trade Deficit (8:30): seen $38.4B; previously $38.7B. January Consumer Credit (3:00 p.m.): seen +$13.9B; previously +$18.8B. Del Monte, Foot Locker and Genesco are among companies scheduled to report quarterly results.
THE BREAKFAST BRIEFING
Jobs Friday has repeatedly been a welcome sight for the bulls. This time seems likely to be no different.
Stock investors appear to be in a win-win situation heading into Friday’s jobs report. A disappointing release will almost certainly be dismissed due to brutal weather conditions last month, whereas a significantly better-than-expected reading could stoke some optimism about the economy and add fuel to the market’s record-breaking rally.
“To some degree, [Friday] can be construed as a best of both worlds scenario either way,” says Dan Greenhaus, chief strategist at BTIG, a New York brokerage firm.
Such a scenario raises the likelihood that one of the more bullish streaks currently taking place in the market will stay alive.
The S&P 500 has rallied on days when the past 10 consecutive jobs reports have been released, a stretch unmatched at least since 1998, according to Bespoke Investment Group. That’s as far back as the research firm’s data go. In fact, stocks have rallied on days when 14 of the past 15 jobs reports have been released dating back to the end of 2012.
Market watchers are stumped by the streak. “You better not write about it because you’ll probably jinx it,” Dean Junkans, chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Private Bank in Minneapolis, quipped in a chat with MoneyBeat.
“If I were to even venture a guess,” he said about the catalyst for the streak, “it would be investors have been in a mindset where they’re following the Fed’s whatever-it-takes mentality. If the number is bad, they feel the Fed is going to stay accommodative longer, or if the number is really good, then that means the actual underlying economy is doing okay.”
Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal predict the economy added 152,000 jobs last month, versus 113,000 jobs added in January. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 6.5%, from 6.6% a month earlier. (As always, MoneyBeat will be live-blogging the action, beginning at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, 30 minutes before the scheduled release.)
Stocks mostly rose Thursday, with the S&P 500 jumping to 1877.03, its fourth record closing high in the past six sessions.
If there’s an argument to be made that the jobs-related streak won’t continue Friday, it might include the fact that the market has had such a strong run this week following Monday’s selloff.
Nevertheless, expectations are pretty low ahead of the report. Economists for weeks have blamed unusually cold weather and snowstorms for disappointing data. Most expect there will be at least some distortions in Friday’s report.
And if recent reactions to poor jobs reports are any guide, they’ll be reason enough for investors to overlook the weather if the numbers don’t look good.
“It’ll be nice when I don’t have to play meteorologist anymore,” Mr. Junkans said.
Morning MoneyBeat Daily Factoid: On this day in 1876, Alexander Graham Bell was granted a patent for the telephone.
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